So, here you are: with a wonderful list of ideas on how you might achieve your outcome. Well, you can't deliver all of them, right? That's why you need to prioritize: ranking your ideas in a certain order to pick one or two ideas you focus on - and which ideas you leave behind. And you naturally would pick the best idea. Of course!
But what actually is the "best" idea? How can you know which action, step, item, the story is the one driving you "best" towards your target outcome? That tricky question can be answered pretty straightforward:
Sean Ellis (THE growth hacker at DropBox) invented the ICE prioritization method. It goes like this:
$$ ICE-Score = Impact * Confidence * Ease $$
The simple equation expresses three variables and provides a value between 0.1 and 1000:
I as in Impact: This is an estimate of how much the idea will affect the key metric you want to improve, stated on a scale from 1 (very little impact) to 10 (revolutionary).
C as in Confidence: Indicates how sure you can be about the estimated Impact, and also about ease of implementation. This measure is expressed on a scale from 0.1 (very low confidence) to 10 (very high confidence).
E as in Ease (of implementation): Reflects an estimation of how much effort, energy, and resources this idea requires. It is also expressed on a scale from 1 (very hard to put in place) to 10 (a piece of cake).
You will have to guesstimate impact and ease. The confidence-part - however - is not estimated but calculated. But how on earth can you calculate on something you do not know in advance?
Trust me, there is a way to calculate confidenceā:
<aside> š¦ To calculate confidence: find existing evidence and weigh it
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Practically, you can use the free Confidence Meter tool as a shortcut. It also lists the common types of evidence you may have at hand. It provides the confidence level that this piece of evidence delivers. The higher the Confidence Level, the stronger is this existing evidence. You thus can calculate your confidence value. If you are unsure where to look for evidence, have a second look at this cheat sheet.
Supporting Evidence and its level of confidence.
Set up a simple table with every opportunity and every possible solution towards your target outcome. Fill in your impact estimation, calculated confidence, estimated ease of each idea, and rank along with ICE Score. And: that's that.
Now, it is time to decide which idea(s) you want to pursue, which one you pick as a solution (for the moment). That means, that you have to say goodbye to most of your ideas with a lower ICE Rank, they will stay a possibility. That's okay. Do it with a light heart: You might come back to them another time. But for now, disregard them and start with a clear focus!